Stephen Cho | Coordinator of the Korean International Forum
The war in the “Republic of Korea (ROK)” is the imperialist forces’ most calculated move. As is widely understood, the essence of current global situation is the third world war and its essence is an anti-imperialist war. The three major theaters of this world war are Eastern Europe, Western Asia (the Middle East), East Asia (the Western Pacific). While the wars in Eastern Europe and Western Asia are already underway, and a war in East Asia is imminent. The ignition points of these fronts are the wars in Ukraine, Palestine, and the “ROK”, respectively. The war in Ukraine erupted in February 2022, the war in Palestine in October 2023, and the war in the “ROK” nearly erupted in October 2024.
At that time, the imperialist camp, fronting the pro-U.S. fascist warmonger Yoon Suk-yeol, attempted to provoke a “local war against the DPRK” through a drone strike on Pyongyang. However it was thwarted by the DPRK’s “strategic patience”. Subsequently, on December 3, 2024, they attempted a pro-US self-coup through the declaration of martial law, but it was also defeated by the “December Uprising” of the people in the “ROK”. Concrete evidence continues to emerge showing that Yoon’s fascist clique deliberately tried to provoke a local war in order to fulfill the precondition for declaring “wartime martial law”. Yoon directly commanded the Drone Operations Command and led a reckless drone attack against Pyongyang, while continuing extremely dangerous provocations including artillery shelling and missile launches from September to November to instigate a local war with the DPRK.
Between 2003 and 2022, the US and “ROK” militaries conducted a total of 132 joint war exercises aimed at invading the DPRK. That number spiked to 122 in 2023, then rose even further to 136 in 2024. In just the first half of 2025, the count has already broken the previous year’s record. Yoon Suk-yeol’s coup was meticulously and rapidly prepared amid these US-”ROK” war rehearsals. One representative example is the operation “Loyalty 8000”, a scenario-based drill conducted during the “Freedom Shield” joint military exercise in March 2024, which assumed a coup situation.
The “ROK” is now moving from insurrection to civil war. The insurrectionist, fascist, and reactionary clique is on the verge of death after failing in their coup. For them, civil war remains the only path to survival. Of the three stages leading to civil war―bloody clashes, riots, gunfire―the first two have already taken place, though on a limited in scale. The current ploy is to ignite a “Constitutional Court riot” as soon as the ruling to dismiss Yoon Suk-yeol is delivered. The reactionary clique’s planned uprising, even operating under the codename “Purge Day”, is set to trigger an immediate declaration of a second martial law. Should gunfire erupt before or after this event, it would instantly escalate into a civil war. Yoon Suk-yeol, who was arrested in January and released in March through an unlawful ruling, together with the insurrectionist, fascist, and reactionary clique entrenched throughout the state apparatus, is desperately inciting a civil war.
When a local war is added to a civil war, it escalates into a war in the “ROK”. The war in the “ROK” represents the final and the most calculated move of the desperate imperialist forces to spark a Third World War. If a war breaks out in the “ROK”, it will almost immediately trigger a war in Taiwan, rapidly expanding into a broader East Asian and Western Pacific war. This would mark the full-scale outbreak of World War 3. Just as the war in Ukraine began with the Maidan coup in 2014 and escalated into full-scale war with Russia’s “Special Military Operation” in 2022, World War 3 began with the war in Ukraine and is set to enter full swing with the imminent war in the “ROK” and across East Asia. For the imperialist camp, the war in the “ROK”―the decisive trigger of World War 3―is not a matter of choice, but a necessity.
The imperialist camp is becoming increasingly divided and chaotic with the inauguration of the Trump administration. Trump has been called a “non-warring imperialist”. This suggests that the imperialist camp is divided between warmongering and non-warmongering factions. Monopoly capital rules through social democracy and fascism internally, and takes the form of imperialism externally. Trump, a representative of monopoly capital within the US, is clearly an imperialist who prioritizes American national interests and aims for global hegemony―yet he is notably characterized by a preference for negotiation over war. This marks a clear distinction from his predecessor Biden, both during Trump’s first term and now in his second.
The Trump administration’s audacious notion of taking over Gaza and its fascist repression that labels anti-Zionist movements as antisemitic are undeniable examples of its imperialist nature. It is no coincidence that Israeli Zionists, backed by US imperialism, are continuing their bombing and massacres in Gaza and Lebanon. At the same time, Trump’s push for US-Russia negotiations to resolve the war in Ukraine, his statement that the US would not intervene in a potential Taiwan conflict, and his reference to the DPRK as a “nuclear-armed state” demonstrate a path distinct from the pro-war forces within the imperialist camp. The formation of a “Coalition of the Willing” led by the UK and France, alongside rising defense budgets and the call for “European self-reliance” among Western European imperialist states, reflects growing anxiety over the prospect of a NATO without the US.
The imperialist belligerents cannot tolerate the Trump government, which is going against the “World War 3 drive”, dividing the imperialist camp and aggravating the crisis. In July 2024, just before the US presidential election, a sniper’s bullet whizzed past Trump’s ear, followed by the Ukrainian-NATO forces invasion of Russia’s Kursk in August 2024, the Israeli Zionist concentrated attack on Lebanese Hezbollah in September, and the “ROK” military’s drone attack on Pyongyang in October. Immediately after the US presidential election, a series of major events unfolded: the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles against Russia and a subsequent attack in November; the declaration of martial law and a coup attempt in the “ROK” in early December; and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria in mid-December.
This leads to the reasonable prediction that sooner or later, the imperialist belligerents will reach a new stage where they will overwhelm the Trump administration who is “driving backwards on the World War 3 highway,” and trigger an enormous event that will decisively set World War 3 into full swing. To cite just a few examples, it could attack Russian or Iranian nuclear facilities, or assassinate Russian and Iranian leadership, and escalate the war in Eastern Europe and Western Asia. Above all, what’s most likely is the triggering of a war in the “ROK”, the fuse to a broader conflict in East Asia and the Western Pacific. Given the sufficient “buildup” over the past four months-from insurrection to civil war-the war in the “ROK” card appears to be the most probable.
Just as the imperialist camp implemented its “Cold War” strategy in the 1950s through the Korean War, using the “ROK” as a frontline anti-communist outpost, it is now attempting to realize its “New Cold War” strategy in the 2020s through a war in the “ROK”, once again deploying it as an anti-communist outpost. It is time to recall that the painful historical experience of the three-stage war preparation ―the civil war in 1948, the local conflict in 1949, and culminating in the full-scale war of 1950―is being reproduced in the “ROK” today in a compressed and rapid manner.
The storm of World War 3 caused by imperialism is blowing from Eastern Europe to Western Asia and then to the Eastern Asia and Western Pacific. In order to deflect the biggest political and economic crisis in history, imperialism has launched the “New Cold War” strategy and is trying to denounce the DPRK, China, Russia, and “Axis of Resistance” including Iran, as a “new axis of aggressors”, shifting the blame on them for the outbreak of World War 3. The war in the “ROK” and Eastern Asian, which will make the World War 3 enter full swing, is imminent.
The key to a scientific analysis on situation lies in identifying the ultimate scheme of the imperialist camp, and the core of establishing revolutionary strategy lies in defining the strategic goal of the anti-imperialist camp. The anti-imperialist forces and anti-imperialist camp around the world are transforming the situation of war into a revolutionary situation by establishing a revolutionary strategy based on scientific analysis of the situation. The imperialist camp is dividing amid its deepening crisis, while the anti-imperialist camp is uniting and strengthening unprecedentedly. On the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War 2, the anti-imperialist camp is scientifically convinced of its final victory.