Stephen Cho | Coordinator of the Korean International Forum
Military tensions are escalating. The world is facing the storm of World War 3. This storm is sweeping from “Northwestern Asia (Eastern Europe)” through Southwestern Asia (West Asia, the Middle East), across South and Southeast Asia, and into East Asia (the Western Pacific). After the direct attempts to provoke war in East Asia ended in failure in the latter half of last year, the imperialists are now pursuing the war in East Asia indirectly, through other routes.
The root cause of war is, as always, imperialism. The warmongering forces within imperialism ceaselessly provoke wars and are driving the situation toward World War 3. The imperialist camp acts as the provocateur of war, while the anti-imperialist camp is the defender of peace. The anti-imperialist camp is struggling to prevent war and preserve peace by every means―through war deterrent capabilities and “strategic patience.”
Contradictions within the imperialist camp are deepening. The imperialist camp is divided between warmongering forces and non-warmongering forces, and their conflicts are becoming even sharper. US president Donald Trump, who represents the non-warmongering forces within imperialism, claims that through a “staged battle” with Iran in June, he succeeded in halting the Iran-Israel war. He also stresses that he mediated the local conflicts between India and Pakistan, and between Thailand and Cambodia. In fact, Israel, Pakistan, and Cambodia have even nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Given this, it would be unrealistic for Trump to launch a full-scale war against Venezuela. He may still resort to military threats and attempt “decapitation operations” or occupy certain areas if the situation calls for it, as part of a strategy to seize control of oil. Meanwhile, the Maduro regime has ordered emergency mobilization and is strengthening revolutionary political forces centered around the communes, standing firm in resistance. Venezuela’s politics are stable, security is reinforced, food self-sufficiency and inflation control are well-managed, and its air force is the second strongest in South America after Brazil.
Trump is caught in three major dilemmas. In the economic sphere, he is experiencing the “Triffin dilemma” through the “tariff war.” Protectionism and tariff pressure, as pursued now, will in the end weaken the hegemony of the dollar. At the same time, since Trump has always been mindful of stock prices, consumer prices, and oil prices, in the run-up to elections, the rise of domestic prices caused by the “tariff bombs” is becoming a heavy burden for him. What is decisive, however, is the fact that the deficit is increasing by 2 trillion dollars every year, leaving the US with a national debt of 37 trillion dollars, with annual interest payments alone amounting to 1 trillion dollars. This interest burden, now exceeding the defense budget, is fatal.
In the military sphere, Trump exists in a position of non-warmongering forces between the warmongering forces and anti-war forces. MAGA supporting him is basically anti-war. As an imperialist, Trump is torn between the warmongering forces within imperialism and the anti-war MAGA camp.
In the political sphere, there exists a contradiction: being anti-deep state while remaining non-Zionist. Trump opposes the deep state, yet takes an ambiguous stance toward its core―the Zionist capital. As is well known, antisemitism is fascist, but anti-Zionism is anti-fascist―because Zionists are themselves fascists. Trump is fully aware of this reality. Nevertheless, he denounced and cracked down on student movements in the US that advocated anti-Zionism, branding them as anti-Semitic. At present, Trump’s opposition to the anti-Zionist movement is clear.
However, unless the Trump’s camp can resolve the three major contradictions―economic, military, and political―it has no future. It is no coincidence that Trump deployed the National Guard and effectively declared martial law in Washington, D.C. Above all, if Trump were to nationalize the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), it would mark a turning point: drastically reducing national debt and paving the way to normalize the US economy. Politically, this would signify a clear shift from a non-Zionist to an anti-Zionist position. That, in turn, would also clarify an anti-war stance in military terms. At that point, it wouldn’t just merit a Nobel Peace Prize―it would be the kind of achievement worthy of being carved into Mount Rushmore. This is the path on which Lincoln and Kennedy were assassinated. But for Trump―who has already had an assassin’s bullet graze past his ear―fear does not seem to be part of the picture. Known as the “Cheshire Cat,” all eyes are now on when and how Trump will finally reveal his true colors.
Recently, the “President of the ‘Republic of Korea (ROK)’,” Lee Jae-myung, met with Trump. The treatment and protocol he received were hardly befitting of an official summit. Above all, Lee Jae-myung, who was utterly outmaneuvered and left completely at the mercy of Trump, crawled on the floor in flattery. In return for promising an additional 150 billion dollars in investment, he received nothing but humiliation and loss―an unprecedented diplomatic disaster.
The ‘ROK’ has pledged to invest 600 billion dollars in the United States, equivalent to the level of the European Union’s 27 member states. Yet the ‘ROK’ does not have the capacity to sustain such an investment. This has only deepened the difficulties of the economy of the ‘ROK.’ For Trump, the consummate dealmaker, Lee Jae-myung―tied to pro-US subservience and predisposed to treachery, national betrayal, and abject humiliation as a colonial appendage―was nothing more than a pliant and easily handled opponent.
Accordingly, when Trump thundered a warning, denouncing the special prosecutor’s search of the military facilities inside a US base in the ‘ROK’ as a “Purge,” and even went so far as to declare that he would outright claim ownership of the world’s largest US base in Pyeongtaek, Lee Jae-myung was dumbfounded, unable to say a word―a moment broadcast live.
In fact, this is a special measure by Trump, intended as prepartion for the DPRK’s ‘subjugation’ of the ‘ROK’―refraining from direct involvement in a contingency, yet securing the safety of US forces, their families, and American citizens.
Yet failing to grasp the point or to comprehend it, Lee Jae-myung made the awkward joke that if Trump were the ‘peacemaker,’ he would be the ‘pace-maker,’ provoking a wry laugh from Trump.
Having extracted everything he wanted from his dealings with Lee Jae-myung, Trump―perhaps out of pity―went so far as to concern himself with saving Lee’s reputation. Among so-called reformist politicians in the ‘ROK,’ not one has escaped such a diplomatic debacle of losing both dignity and substance before a US president. This is because the ‘ROK’ remains a complete colony of US imperialism.
In contrast, the DPRK’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has been invited as a guest of honor to the September 3rd Chinese Victory Day celebrations, where he will stand side by side with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. This marks a historic moment―the first time that the top leaders of the three main forces within the anti-imperialist camp come together. Chairman Kim Jong Un chose China for his first multilateral diplomatic stage, just as he did for his first overseas visit. The DPRK and China are blood allies, having fought shoulder to shoulder in the anti-Japanese armed struggle. In recent years, the DPRK has focused its diplomatic efforts on Russia. It places strategic weight on its relations with China during periods of diplomatic focus, and on Russia during times of military emphasis. Thus, the DPRK’s participation in the Victory Day celebrations signals that Chairman Kim Jong Un, while having concentrated on military matters in recent years, now intends to pursue diplomacy in parallel. In its diplomacy, the DPRK thoroughly excludes the ‘ROK,’ yet deliberately leaves some room for engagement with the US. China, for its part, is strengthening unity within the anti-imperialist camp―highlighting India at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, scheduled just before the military parade in Beijing, where the DPRK will be placed in the spotlight a few days later.
The imperialist warmongering forces are using Israel to devastate the Gaza Strip, and they are openly revealing their ambition to occupy Lebanon and Syria, aiming ultimately to seize control of the western coastal region―the Mediterranean Sea coast―which is rich in oil resources. To this end, countries like the United States and Germany are intensively supplying weapons to Israel. This is also a sign that a renewed Israeli war against Iran may not be far off. This is one of the reasons behind the concentrated attacks on Yemen as well. Seen from this perspective, the US military threats against Venezuela may be a diversionary tactic―a feint designed to conceal this broader scheme. Of course, there must be firm preparedness against the imperialist strategy to create a “second Syria” in Latin America. The military crisis is deepening.