Ju Hsing Tsang | Labor Party (Taiwan)
The Democratic Progressive Party, the ruling power of Taiwan, is so absolutely obedient to the US that it is not enough to describe it as pro-US power. Thus, so-called Cross-Strait relations between Taiwan and mainland China are decided by the relations between China and the US. Lai Ching-Te government, scheduled to be inaugurated on this May 20, belongs to the hard-liners among Taiwan’s secessionist forces. He will take a strong stand against the Chinese mainland, so cross-strait tensions are expected to escalate. However, the general opinion is that he will not go outside the frame of the strategy towards China that the US set up. The US is worried that Lai Ching-Te may do something unexpected. After he was elected, the US sent envoys twice exceptionally and repeatedly asked him not to do so.
Is the Taiwan Strait on the brink of war?
To say Yes or No to answer this question, is to fall into a trap.
The Western world including the US, is emphasi-zing the potential war crisis in the Cross-Strait.
Philip Davidson, the former Commander of United States Indo-Pacific Command said mainland China is going to attack Taiwan in 2027, a specified year. This prediction is spreading widely around the world. Many so-called experts are responding to it.
However, it is not true at all. The logic of their scenario is simple, ie., China is a bad guy, so if it becomes stronger, it will invade Taiwan. In 2027, the military power between the US and mainland China will be reversed in East Asia surrounding the Cross-Strait, and the Chinese mainland will have the ability to invade Taiwan. Xi Jinping needs to do something great to serve consecutive terms after his term which expires in 2027. That will be precisely reunification with Taiwan through force. There are two objectives of propagating this unreasonable and illogical line. One is demonizing China, and the other is invading China by binding, arming and strengthening the East Asian countries including Japan, South Korea, etc., and even Australia by asserting ‘China Threat Theory’.
The risk of war does exist in East Asia, including the Cross-Strait. However, it is different from the scenario they insist on. Because mainland China and Taiwan are one China, it is an issue of reunification, not an issue of expanding one’s territory or invading another territory. The Chinese Mainland keeps to the principle of peaceful reunification. It is needed to avoid the reunification through force as far as is possible, since it could cause great pain for the Taiwanese. Additionally, it will take a long time to heal the pain and political anxiety is bound to be stirred in that time, so it should be avoided.
Since the biggest obstacle for the reunification issue comes from US intervention, if such an intervention can be avoided, reunification will obviously proceed smoothly. It is only a matter of time the difference in national power between China and the US is reversed, and it may safely be said that the military power of China in East Asia has already equaled or surpassed that of the US. Therefore, China does not need to hurry. It has no reason at all to carry out the reunification through force in the next few years.
It does not mean that there is no risk of war in Taiwan Strait, though, because the US can start an invasion war against China. This is the most likely war scenario.
The US has neither the ability nor the courage to go head-to-head with China in the waters off China. The time when the Western countries could invade China at will with bringing a few cannons from the foreign land far away like the Opium War during the Qing Dynasty period, over a hundred years ago, is over. Furthermore, the Taiwan issue is a matter of protecting the sovereignty for China, but for the US, it is just a matter of interests. China will risk life-or-death to defend its sovereignty, but the US will not. They will give up if they decide that it is not worth the candle. They have no reason to pay a high price for fighting with China.
However, as the Russia-Ukraine War, the US is likely to provoke war by using its instruments, the main ones being Taiwan and Japan (Okinawa). Other than that there are South Korea and Australia, etc. The US will bind their puppets as much as they can. The scenario is similar to that mentioned above, too. That is inducing a preemptive attack from China. This task will be assigned to the Democratic Progressive Party, the ruling power of Taiwan, that is obedient to the US.
As mentioned before, China’s principle is peaceful reunification. However, this does not apply to special situations. What the special situations include are well stipulated in the ‘Anti-secession Law’. It pursues Cross-Strait reunification, but in special circumstances, it also specifies reunifying the country through non-peaceful means. Therefore, if the US wants to induce the preemptive strike from China through Taiwan, Taiwan needs to only deliberately violate the ‘Anti-secession Law’. Article 8 of the ‘Anti-secession Law’ stipulates this. In the event that the ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan’s secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan’s secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
This provision can be briefly summarized as follows. ‘The three conditions for using non-peaceful means’ are first, Taiwan’s de facto independence, second, significant incidents should occur in Taiwan and lead to its independence, and third, possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted.
Regarding the first condition, what is a more clear case is Taiwan declares independence, but if Taiwan amends the territorial provisions of the constitution and limits its territory to Taiwan (the current territorial provisions include Taiwan and the entire Chinese mainland), this would also constitute de facto independence. Not only this, but recently the US has repeatedly mentioned UN Resolution 2758 (passed in 1971), and by explaining the Resolution in a distorted way, it denies the One-China principle that it previously accepted. Denying the One-China principle can also be seen as advancing Taiwan’s de facto independence.
Concerning the second condition, this includes foreign interventions. These days, the US has been sending their soldiers and training Taiwanese soldiers for urban warfare, and it is a situation that could be interpreted as intervention by foreign troops.
In conclusion, as the US continues to test China’s red lines, the risk of a military crisis in the Taiwan Strait is bound to be always present. If the US decides to start a war and make Taiwan to cross the red line, then the war is inevitable. It may outwardly appear that China launched a preemptive attack. In this regard, the US will mobilize its gangs and proclaim that China started an invasion war.
There is certainly a heightened warlike atmo-sphere in the Taiwan Strait or East Asia, but this is not caused by China, but by the US imperialism.
Our task now is to detect and destroy the intentions of the US. Now, according to the demands of the US, Japan (Okinawa) and South Korea, etc. are increasing military spending on the premise of the ‘China Threat Theory’. This is not an act of protecting regional safety, but an act of preparing and provoking war with China.
If it really wishes for regional safety and Taiwan’s safety, it must support peaceful Cross-Strait reunification. They are one China. Excluding foreign interventions, they can resolve safety issues peacefully and, by extension, achieve reunification.
The US and their stooges continuing to support Taiwan’s de facto independence by strengthening the military forces does not make Taiwan peaceful, but rather risky. Because the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces will more provoke mainland China on the strength of foreign forces, the risk of war will drastically increase. The US and their stooges will have to think carefully. If they support the secession of Taiwan through war, from China’s perspective, this is clearly a challenge to China’s sovereignty, so China will regard it as an invasion war against itself. Are they capable of engaging in such a war? They will need to think through whether they can go through the invasion war in spite of huge damage and the people’s opposition.