Jack Mallgrave | Workers’ Party of Ireland
The international situation continues to revolve around the power of the United States and its ongoing attempts to preserve its global hegemony in the face of the rising economic power of China in particular, but also that of a wide range of countries who chafe under the restrictions imposed by American domination.
The US has retreated from the strategy of attempting large scale invasions and occupations, such as attempted with Iraq and, to a lesser extent, Afghanistan due to the heavy costs inflicted by the local populations. It focuses instead on identifying groups within countries whose interests either align with the US or who can be bought or intimidated into working to a US agenda.
Of course, such actors have their own agenda and they attempt to draw in the US as a heavyweight on their side in their particular struggle, e.g. the Kurds in Syria and Iraq. Likewise, while Ukrainian nationalism or Sunni fundamentalism are pre-existing factors in Ukraine or Syria irrespective of the involvement of the United States the fact that the US does get involved tends to escalate political differences into severe conflict and sometimes even outright war. Such wars can go on for a very long time because the US and its regional allies can, even where their proxies on the ground are incapable of winning, still calibrate their intervention to prevent their utter defeat. Thus, the Syrian State, while successful in beating back the Jihadi assault has been unable to close out its victory and focus on rebuilding the country.
The lengthy war between Russia and Ukraine is an example of where the US will extend every effort to prop up its proxy, leading to a very drawn out conflict. Further, 100s of billions of dollars were spent in the 30 years before the current war escalated in 2022, with the US funding extreme nationalist NGOs, politicians, and media in Ukraine, culminating in the 2014 putsch whose vanguard were neo-Nazis. It is through such invisible interventions that the US can exert such great influence. This funding, coupled with unparalleled surveillance and intelligence capabilities, and domination of the international financial system ensures the US has vastly greater power than any other state even before military capabilities are considered.
The fundamental dynamic behind American imperialism is its decline in productive power especially relative to China. Hegemony can no longer be assured by its economic prowess but rather relies on a system of lop-sided alliances, cultural and financial influence, and hard military capacity. The strategy first developed in the aftermath of the fall of the USSR that no great power rival ever be allowed to rise to challenge the USA remains in force. It is an extremely dangerous one as it aggressively seeks to confront developing nations.
A similar scenario in the early 20th century with the rise of German economic and cultural power precipitated two massive wars that cost tens of millions of lives. The present posturing by the USA against China and Russia is similarly dangerous and, with the advent of nuclear weapons, possibly terminal.
Nevertheless the Chinese state takes a cautious approach to engaging with international issues and its support for socialists in other countries does not amount to very much. Its main contribution is in showing that there is an alternative to the American model of capitalism; that public control of major economic and financial institutions can yield superior results in the long-term. Thus, major projects such as public transport, nuclear power generation, and computer development continue to make great strides in China at the same time as the west is tending to stagnate. However, it is the very threat of being a good example that leads it to incur the wrath of the USA as the latter does not want there to be any alternative at all dangled in front of their own populations.
This wrath has so far not amounted to very much; too much American capital is tied up in China just yet. But the increasingly bellicose American rhetoric around Taiwan and the constantly growing set of economic sanctions directed against restricting China’s technological advancement point in the direction of future conflict.
Despite the USA’s tremendous cultural, economic, and military power many countries are attempting to emerge from its domination. Latin America has traditionally been the site of intense popular struggles which have sometimes won state power. Currently, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela maintain their independence despite intense pressure from Washington while in many other countries popular movements remain in significant strength. In the Middle East, where American intervention in the 21st century has been most overt and brutal, their hegemony is consistently under threat, with Iran and Syria providing the locus of opposition.
Opposition to the USA does not, of course mean that a country is socialist or pro-socialist in nature. The clerical nature of the Iranian state or the nationalist positioning of the present Russian government, replete with its anti-communist critiques, illustrate that anti-imperialist does not automatically entail being socialist. Nevertheless, there is a world of difference between powers that seek to impose their will on other countries even if they share a common mode of production. Moreover, opposing the imperialist predations, whether they be overt invasion or clever proxy war, often entails mobilising popular support and resorting to higher order economic planning in order to cope with crushing sanctions. Thus, there is some groundwork laid for the future development of a militant working class in such societies, just as revolutionary republicanism in Ireland laid the foundations for a socialist movement to emerge here.
We therefore do not subscribe to the position that both sides in the present war in Europe comprise imperialist states. This neglects the recent history of the fall of the USSR and the massive levels of funding to break apart Russia and Ukraine. Russia is ultimately fighting a war to preserve its existence in the face of NATO aggression and while their escalation in February 2022 was a tragic development, the constant rejection by the USA of any attempt to agree a modus vivendi with Moscow coupled with ongoing attacks on Russian populated areas, rendered the invasion likely. The survival of Russia as an actually sovereign state provides, along with Chinese independence, some space for non-American approved societies to exist. Their defeat will close the chapter on viable opposition to capitalism or a century at least.
The opposite is not the case. An American defeat in Ukraine will weaken but not destroy American power. Its ability to avail of unlimited spending through its control of the reserve currency and consequent economic and cultural power would be curtailed but not broken. And whereas American victory would advance the pervasiveness of their radical liberal ideology a defeat would promote more sovereignist ideologies as viable alternatives.
The political situation in sub-Saharan countries has, after many years of stagnation, erupted over the last 18 months with coups and changes of government that seek to remove western, particularly French, domination from their countries. The emergence of states in this region that can begin to chart a sovereign course for their own nations is a welcome development despite the many challenges that lie ahead, not least counter-revolutionary movements and inter-ethnic strife that will be fuelled by funds from Paris or Washington.
While the USA continues to assert its interests in crass aggressive form, the EU has taken on the role of its abject, subservient sidekick. Be it wrecking its own economic core in Germany due to sanctioning Russia and shutting its nuclear power plants or creating the basis for a future Nazi presence within its own borders through its funding Ukrainian Nazism on a vast scale while preaching human rights, the EU has shown almost zero capacity to act independently of Washington. The EU constituent states are at this point vassals of the USA and will remain so until the US is weakened. European nations themselves can only exert sovereignty together in the face of international capital and the USA, thus our aim of a European Republic remains a necessary step in the building of a socialist society here.