Stephen Cho | Coordinator of the Korean International Forum
1. On January 19, 2025, a detention warrant was issued for the “Republic of Korea (ROK)” President Yoon Suk-yeol. Following his failed attempt at a pro-presidential coup d’état on December 3, 2024, where he declared martial law, he was suspended from the presidential office after the National Assembly passed a motion for his impeachment on December 14 for charges of treason, insurrection, and inducement of foreign aggression. On December 31 and January 7, the joint investigation headquarters consisting of the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO), Police, etc., issued arrest warrants on two separate occasions, and after much difficulty, he was captured on January 15. Yoon obstructed the execution of the arrest warrant by mobilizing the Presidential Security Service (PSS), resulting in the largest-ever arrest operation. Yoon, who was detained at the Seoul Detention Center, requested the court to review the legality of the arrest, but the court denied his petition on January 16. On January 17, the CIO filed for a warrant of detention, and on January 19, the court issued the warrant following an investigation to determine its validity. As expected of the former Prosecutor General, Yoon attempted to obstruct all law enforcement actions and invoked various legal remedies, but all of his attempts failed.
2. On January 19, the moment Yoon’s detention warrant was issued, the far-right reactionary crowd supporting him turned into a mob and stormed the Seoul Western District Court that issued the warrant, smashing windows and destroying office furniture. During the riot, a police officer was lynched by the mob and injured, and an MBC (Munhwa Broadcasting Corporation―one of the major television and radio broadcasters in the “ROK”) reporter was also attacked, with the camera being broken. Such a riot, in which the crowd stormed the courthouse, wielding violence, damaging the building, and injuring people, is the first of its kind in the “ROK” history. The Democratic Party has labeled this as a “second insurrection.”
3. The unprecedented courthouse storming riot―the “January 19 Riot”―was incited by Yoon Suk-yeol, the leader of the insurrection, along with far-right reactionary pastor Jeon Kwang-hoon and far-right reactionary People Power Party (PPP) lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun, as well as actively supported by far-right YouTubers. Jeon Kwang-hoon is an extreme right-wing pastor who blamed the December crash of Jeju Air, which killed 179 people, on “leftists” and “Satan.” Yoon Sang-hyun was the son-in-law of the military fascist Chun Doo-hwan, who was responsible for the Gwangju Massacre in 1980. Yoon Sang-hyun directly incited the riot by telling far-right youth that they would be released immediately on warning even if they were arrested by the police for storming the courthouse. On January 17, PPP lawmaker Kim Min-jeon organized a press conference at the National Assembly with the “Anti-Communist Youth Corps,” also known as the “Baekgoldan” (White Skull Squad), which caused great controversy. The model for the “Anti-Communist Youth Corps” was the “Northwest Youth Association,” which played a leading role in the 1948 Jeju Massacre. The “National Anti-Communist Youth Corps” was a youth organization that took the forefront in the 1960 election fraud orchestrated by Syngman Rhee. The “Baekgoldan” was a political gangster organization formed by Syngman Rhee in 1952, and later became a police gangster organization responsible for violently killing student and labor protests after the 1980s.
4. The term “January 19 riot” is referred to as “disturbance” in legal terminology. “Disturbance” falls under the definition of “Incident,” meaning “when there are belligerency or serious disturbances of social order that considerably impede the performance of the administrative and judicial functions of the State”. It is one of the two key conditions for declaring emergency martial law, along with “in time of war.” The Counter-Intelligence Agency cites the October 1979 Uprising (the Busan-Masan Uprising) as an example, where emergency martial was declared due to a “civil disturbance.” It implies that it is not impossible for acting President Choi Sang-mok to declare a second martial law. Although the National Assembly could vote to lift it, it should be noted that, unlike the first martial law attempt in the absence of a “state of war,” the current situation, which involves “disturbance,” makes the conditions for declaring martial law relatively satisfied.
5. Currently, Yoon Suk-yeol is awaiting the ruling of the Constitutional Court. Legal experts commonly expect that the ruling will be made within approximately two months, with a 100% likelihood of an admission. If that happens, Yoon will be dismissed from the presidency, and disciplinary measures will be finalized. Afterward, as punitive measures, a court trial will proceed regarding charges of treason, insurrection, and inducement of foreign aggression. The crime of insurrection is punishable only by death, with the method of execution specifically defined as a firing squad. It is important to note that, due to the severity of the crimes of treason, insurrection, and inducement of foreign aggression, they are exceptions to the president’s immunity from arrest, which is why Yoon was urgently arrested and is currently detained in a detention center.
6. On December 31, 2024, it was revealed by the Democratic Party’s insurrection fact-finding team that Yoon directly led the Office of National Security (ONS) and the Drone Operations Command in executing the drone attack on Pyongyang on three days of October 3, 9, and 10, 2024. The drones’ continuous incursions into Pyongyang, dropping leaflets, clearly crossed the red line established by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). However, the DPRK did not respond at all, with its “strategic patience.” Had the DPRK taken corresponding military action, a localized war would have broken out immediately. If that had occurred, it would have fallen under the category of “wartime,” meeting the requirements for emergency martial law. The localized war itself could have escalated into the the war in the “ROK”, but even if that didn’t happen, the declaration of emergency martial law would have provoked a response from the DPRK, eventually leading to an outbreak of the war in the “ROK”. In other words, the war in the “ROK” could have erupted in October 2024. The side that threatened peace in the Korean Peninsula and East Asia is the “ROK,” while the side that preserved it is the DPRK.
7. The Special Investigation Headquarters of the prosecution revealed, through the indictment of the former Minister of National Defense Kim Yong-hyun, who is a principal offender in the insurrection, that Yoon had issued a shooting order to the martial law forces during the December 3 martial law period, stating “shoot if necessary,” and he also remarked, “We can implement the 2nd and 3rd martial law”. Even after the National Assembly voted to lift the martial law, it was confirmed, through CCTV evidence and other sources, that there was an attempt to arrest the National Assembly Speaker, the key decision-maker in the parliamentary vote, if he went back home, and to declare the second martial law.
8. During the process of Yoon’s arrest and detention, far-right reactionaries were united under the direction of the US. Specifically, the Presidential Office, the PPP, conservative media, and far-right YouTubers engaged in a series of reckless statements and actions that denied the rule of law and democracy. This escalated to the point where they even occupied the courts and engaged in riotous behavior. In the colonial “ROK,” the only force capable of mobilizing and organizing all these far-right reactionaries at once is the imperialist US, which holds military, political, and economic control.
9. The “ROK” is transitioning from insurrection to civil war. It is still in a state of insurrection. Although the National Assembly and the government lifted the first martial law, the arrest and detention of Yoon have intensified the ongoing conflict between the “pro-Yoon,” fascist, and reactionary forces on one side and the “anti-Yoon,” democratic, and progressive forces on the other. As these conflicts deepen into violent clashes and riots, the declaration of a second martial law becomes more likely under the pretext of this “disturbance.” If this is followed by the military opening fire on the citizens protesting the martial law, it will recreate the 1980 Gwangju Massacre as the “2025 Seoul Massacre.” Just as the citizen militia of Gwangju organized and fought against the martial law troops, Seoul’s citizens will do the same. It will be a civil war. The “January 19 riot” is the signal of the coming civil war.
10. If Yoon is deposed from the presidency two months later by the Constitutional Court’s decision, an early presidential election will be held within two months, where Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung is expected to be elected unless there is a surprise. Suppose the Democratic Party wins the presidency as well as an overwhelming majority of the National Assembly. In that case, the special counsel bills to probe insurrection, and Kim Geon-hee (Yoon’s spouse accused of corruption) will be passed by the National Assembly without the President exercising his veto power. If that happens, most People Power Party politicians will be detained while investigating the treason, insurrection, and inducement of foreign aggression incidents and “Myung Tae-kyun Gate.” Afterward, the PPP will be fatally wounded as a political force and unable to avoid disbanding.
11. Civil war is the only way out for the insurrection cliques. They will likely be sentenced to heavy punishment for charges such as insurrection crimes, and their very existence as a political force is at risk due to their expected defeat in the early presidential election. The insurrection cliques, whose downfall is already certain, will do whatever it takes to shake things up and turn the situation around in order to survive.
12. The war in the “ROK” is not an option but a necessity for imperialism. For the imperialist powers instigating World War 3, the war in the “ROK” is like a detonator in East Asia, the main battlefield of World War 3. If the war in the “ROK” breaks out, the war in Taiwan will likely erupt at the same time, and if Japan and the Philippines join in, it will become a war in East Asia. If Australia and New Zealand were added, it would turn into the Western Pacific War. The war in the “ROK” is the optimal move for imperialism, which aims to escalate World War 3 in earnest. In other words, the storm of World War 3, triggered by imperialism, is sweeping from Eastern Europe through West Asia and heading toward East Asia. In fact, in February 2022, the war in Ukraine broke out in Eastern Europe; in October 2023, the war in Palestine erupted in West Asia (the Middle East); and in October 2024, the war in the “ROK” almost broke out.
13. Civil war is a way to survive for insurrection cliques, and the war in the “ROK” is the imperialist’s scheme. When combining civil war in the “ROK” with a localized conflict against the DPRK, it becomes the war in the “ROK.” The “ROK” has the historical experience of starting its civil war in 1948 domestically, going through the localized conflict against the DPRK in 1949, and then witnessing the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950. Today, the “ROK” is precisely following the process of internal confrontations among the masses, riots, a second martial law, and gun firing that will lead to civil war. The process of civil war, localized conflict, and the Korean War that occurred between 1948 and 1950 is being condensed and reenacted today. The “ROK” is closer to civil war and the war in the “ROK” than ever before.
14. While the Korean War in 1950 marked the beginning of the “Cold War,” the war in the “ROK” in 2025 will mark the beginning of the “New Cold War.” The commonality between these two wars is that both then and now, the “ROK” is an “out-and-out anti-communist outpost” of the US, which is “the most reactionary state that regards anti-communism as its invariable state policy.” US imperialism has defined the DPRK, China, Russia, and Iran as the “New Axis of Aggressors” and is pushing for a “New Cold War” system through World War 3.
15. The anti-imperialist camp is advancing on two key strategic theaters, Eastern Europe and East Asia, among the three major theaters of war. The great victors of the December Uprising, the “ROK” people, will crush the plots for civil war and local conflicts through anti-fascist and anti-imperialist uprisings, protecting peace in the region and advancing the new world of people’s democracy. The People’s Democracy Party, the sole subjective force of the “ROK” revolution, will proudly fulfill its historic mission as the locomotive of the uprising.
