Stephen Cho | Coordinator of the Korean International Forum
The communist movement must always analyze the situation scientifically and establish strategy in a revolutionary manner. Just like a doctor’s diagnosis and prescription, it must identify problems through scientific analysis of the situation, and find solutions by establishing revolutionary strategies. The same applies to theories of social revolution based on theories of societal character. Here, theory is none other than strategy and tactics; it is an integrated system of aims, means, and methods. Aims and purpose are always important and take precedence. This is because they define, out of 5W1H, the “what” and “why”―the essential content, necessity, and inevitability. This is often referred to as the “Calculated Move.” In that sense, the “Calcaulated Move” of scientific analysis and revolutionary strategy establishments corresponds to, respectively, the aims of the opposing side (the enemy) and the goals of our side (ourselves). In the context of the ongoing World War 3, the key points of scientific analysis and the establishment of revolutionary strategy, respectively, lie in what the imperialist camp aims for through this war and what the anti-imperialist camp must seek in response.
The storm of World War 3, unleashed by imperialism, is now blowing from Eastern Europe, through West Asia (the Middle East), toward East Asia and the Western Pacific. While it is widely known that imperialism is the root cause of World War 3, what remains less understood is the calculated move of imperialism. Its calculated move―what it is ultimately aiming for―is not victory in World War 3. Such a victory is impossible from the outset. World War 3 is a confrontation between the imperialist and anti-imperialist camps on a global scale, and the three leading forces of the anti-imperialist camp—DPRK, China, and Russia—are all nuclear missile superpowers. It is absurd to imagine that the US and European imperialist states could achieve victory over these military powers armed with hydrogen bombs and hypersonic missiles. In reality, the war between these countries is being fought in Ukraine and is set to break out in the “Republic of Korea (ROK)” and in Taiwan (Not in their lands). From the beginning, the imperialist camp conceived these wars as proxy wars led by fascist puppets. The war in Ukraine has already unfolded exactly in this manner. The wars in the “ROK” and Taiwan are also being prepared in the same way. Even if the DPRK, China, and Russia use tactical nuclear weapons, this framework will not change. In fact, the DPRK has repeatedly declared its readiness to use tactical nuclear weapons, has drawn up specific operational plans, and has completed actual training. Likewise, China’s encirclement exercises around Taiwan in early April were clearly based on the assumption of tactical nuclear deployment. Russia too has repeatedly emphasized its preparedness to use tactical nuclear weapons. Of course, it goes without saying that these developments would only unfold as an act of self-defense, preventive war, or liberation war of the DPRK, China, and Russia―a decisive counterattack if imperialism provokes war against them. But for the US, UK, and France to launch a nuclear attack on the DPRK, China, or Russia would mean mutual assured destruction—each side striking the other’s homeland with hydrogen bombs. That, too, is an impossibility.
What are the goals the imperialist bloc is aiming for in World War 3? The strategic goal of the imperialist camp is, in a word, to form a “New Cold War” through this world war. It is trying to create a new confrontation similar to the past “Cold War” by defining the first tier of the “Axis of Resistance”—the three countries of the DPRK, China, and Russia as well as Iran—the “Axis of New Aggressors” or “Axis of New Evil.” This is due to the worst political and economic crisis in the history of imperialism, not only the collapse of the unipolar system of the US-centered and imperialist world after the counterrevolution in the Soviet Union and the East, and the transition to a multipolar system, but also the rise of the “G2,” the BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the new era in which the DPRK has entered the ranks of nuclear and missile powers. In other words, it is an imperialist idea to have half of the cake when it cannot have the whole cake, a Plan B created because Plan A failed, and a desperate measure that was put forward in response to the crisis.
The imperialist camp’s “New Cold War” configuration, the “New Axis of Aggression” and “New Axis of Evil”, is shaped like a “U”. This is a new strategy of encirclement and disintegration that encompasses both the “Ω”-shape of France, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine, which bypassed the Carpathian Mountains in central Europe in line with the “Grand Chessboard” strategy to attack the Soviet Union and Russia, and the “C”-shape of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and Taiwan to disintegrate China. The imperialist camp’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy” has already reached the stage of completion with the strengthening of the Indo-Pacific Command, the formation of the “Asian NATO,” and the completion of “Pacificization of NATO.” The “Asian NATO” was virtually formed at the US Camp David Conference in August 2023, with the leaders of the US, Japan, and “ROK” forming its main pillars, and was strengthened and expanded by the US-led multilateral alliance system and various joint military exercises, such as “Squad” with the Philippines and “AUKUS” with Australia. “Pacificization of NATO” was politically prepared at the Washington NATO Summit in July 2024 and militarily prepared with exercises like “Freedom Edge,” “RIMPAC,” and “Ulchi Freedom Shield” from June to August 2024. This means that NATO’s eastward policy has reached from the North Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean through the Mediterranean, Gulf, and Indian Oceans.
India is a key country for the imperialist camp within this “U-shaped encirclement strategy” that surrounds Russia, the “Axis of Resistance” such as Iran, China, and the DPRK. Initially, in 2001, the imperialists attempted to integrate China into their camp by bringing it into the WTO, but it was defeated by China’s “Tao Guang Yang Hui (Hide your strength, bide your time) and ”Harmonious Rise (Peaceful rise)” strategies. Consequently, their strategy was converted from the “Asia-Pacific Strategy” to the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” without China. Having lost China as the “world’s factory”, their strategy is to include India in the imperialist camp as Plan B. To this end, they created a “Quad” that includes India and held joint military exercises. However, it did not go as the imperialists intended as Modi, who was elected in the new election in India, visited Russia and held a summit with Putin instead of participating in the Washington NATO Summit in July 2024, showing the behavior of a traditional non-aligned country as a founding member of the BRICS. In this context, the recent localized war between Indo and Pakistan over Kashmir, which has fostered a conflict between China and India—China being closely aligned with Pakistan—can hardly be seen as a coincidence, as it served to pull India further toward the Western and imperialist camp. In addition, if Ukraine is referred to as Northwest Asia and West Asia is specifically referred to as Southwest Asia, the Indo-Pakistani war shows that the flow of World War 3 is spreading from Northwest Asia to South Asia through Southwest Asia, and it can also be said that the war in East Asia is imminent under the “U-shaped encirclement strategy” and the “Indo-Pacific strategy.”
In fact, during the fall and winter of 2024, there were dangerously provocative acts of imperialism and fascism that posed a serious risk of war with the “ROK”. From September to November 2024, the fascist group in the “ROK” launched an unprecedented local war against the DPRK, including an unmanned drone attack on Pyongyang. When this was nullified due to the DPRK’s “strategic patience,” in December 2024, a military coup attempt was made in the “ROK” as an alternative route to provoke war. This too was thwarted by the heroic resistance of the “ROK” people.
After the failure of the military coup in the “ROK”, even conservative media have continued to label the ongoing maneuvers to provoke civil war as a “judicial coup” and a “political coup.” Ahead of the presidential election, there have been warnings of an “election coup”—an attempt to assassinate the leading opposition candidate with overwhelming support. In any case, the “ROK” is in the midst of an impending war, with provocations of local war against the DPRK and plots for internal civil conflict in the “ROK” intersecting—not knowing when the conflict will explode. Fascism in the “ROK” is a clear sign of impending war, and a war initiated by fascists would mean the eve of revolution. In a policy speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly in January 2024, the DPRK declared that if fascists and imperialists start a war, it would respond by turning it into an anti-fascist, anti-imperialist war, and a war of subjugation. In January 2025, without delivering a new policy speech, this stance was reaffirmed. This means that even if reformist candidate Lee Jae-myung is elected and a Trump and Lee Jae-myung administration is established, the DPRK will not return to negotiations like during the previous Trump and Moon Jae-in era. In other words, unless a future Trump administration decides to withdraw US forces from the “ROK”, and a Lee Jae-myung administration abolishes the National Security Law and takes real action to implement past agreements, the DPRK will not return to the negotiation table with the US or the “ROK”.
The imperialist camp is currently divided over World War 3 into warmonger and non-warmonger forces. Donald Trump, representing the non-warmonger imperialist forces, had a sniper’s bullet graze past his ear during the presidential campaign. It occurred precisely in July 2024 when the warmonger imperialist forces completed the political preparations for the “Pacificization of NATO” through the Washington NATO Summit and the military preparations through various joint military exercises such as “RIMPAC.” After completing these political and military preparations, they carried out the invasion of Kursk in August, concentrated strikes on Hezbollah in September, and a drone attack on Pyongyang in October. These were the developments right before the US presidential election. Then, immediately after the election, there followed the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles against Russia in November, and in December, the attempted pro-US self-military coup in the “ROK” and the collapse of the Assad government in Syria. There is no way that such warmonger imperialist forces would quietly watch while US-Russia and US-Iran negotiations proceed after Trump comes to power. The creation of a “Coalition of the Willing” among Western European countries, France’s statement offering a nuclear umbrella, Israel’s concentrated attacks on Gaza, and its threat to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities—these are not coincidences. In particular, attention must be paid to the unprecedented explosion that occurred in Iran’s largest port on the very first day of US-Iran negotiations. Above all, we must pay attention to the outbreak of a localized war between India and Pakistan triggered by the Kashmir conflict that clearly reveals the intention to drive a wedge between India and China and pull India from the anti-imperialist camp toward the imperialist camp. To repeat once again: we cannot afford to be complacent as the direction of war shifts from Northwest Asia through Southwest and South Asia and now points toward East Asia.
East Asia is to become the main theater of World War 3, and the detonator of the war in East Asia is currently the war in the “ROK.” As is now widely known around the world, if the war in the “ROK” breaks out, the war in Taiwan will erupt simultaneously and automatically, which will soon escalate into a broader war in East Asia with Japan and the Philippines joining in, and then into Western Pacific with countries like Australia joining as well. Japan’s Self-Defense Forces established a Unified Operations Command in March 2025, and the Biden administration’s plan to transfer operational control of the US Forces Japan (USFJ) from the Indo-Pacific Command to the USFJ was halted by the Trump administration. Trump reaffirmed a non-belligerent policy through negotiations with Russia and Iran, a recognition of the “DPRK as a nuclear state,” the halt of operational control transfer to USFJ, and a call to cease the localized war between India and Pakistan. For the anti-imperialist camp, the non-warmonger imperialist forces can never be targets of a permanent strategic joint front, nor even of a temporary tactical joint front. However, they can be targets of tactical cooperation. In other words, with them, while agreements or joint declarations through negotiations are impossible, solidarity without agreement or declaration—“silent solidarity”—in striking a common enemy is necessary. This is precisely why the warmonger imperialist forces will resort to a decisive move to suppress the non-warmonger imperialist forces, and the most likely among such moves is the war in the “ROK.” For the warmonger imperialist forces, who are desperate for World War 3 and the war in East Asia, the war in the “ROK” is not a choice but a necessity—the optimal card to suppress the non-warmonger imperialist forces.
