Miguel Alexander Escobar | Rafael AguiƱada Carranza Inter-Union Coordinating Committee (CIRAC, El Salvador)
General Introduction
Comrades, delegates, fighters of the oppressed peoples:
We do not wish to speculate about catastrophes. We consider it important to read the reality of the world through the method of dialectical materialism. Imperialism, in its terminal phase of financial parasitism and military aggression, has unleashed a fragmented yet systemic Third World War. It is not a single continuous front, but a multiplicity of local, regional, and hybrid wars that form part of a single strategy: to maintain the domination of transnational monopoly capital, led by the United States and its satellites in NATO, the EU, Japan, and Australia.
The Fronts of World War III
1. Imperialist Aggression Against Africa and the Global Struggles for Independence
Africa has been, since the Berlin Conference (1884ā85), the laboratory of capitalist plunder. Today, that tradition is renewed in new forms:
ā¢ French and US neo-colonialism: France maintains the CFA franc as a mechanism for transferring value from 14 African countries to the French Treasury. The US, through AFRICOM, controls military bases in Djibouti, Niger (until the recent anti-imperialist coup), Kenya, and Somaliaāostensibly against āterrorism,ā but in reality to secure uranium (Niger), coltan (Democratic Republic of Congo), oil (South Sudan, Nigeria), and gas (Mozambique).
ā¢ Coups dāĆ©tat as a disciplinary mechanism: When a government of mother Africa attempts to nationalise resources or draw closer to Russia, China, or Iran, imperialism organises soft (or hard) coups. Examples: the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya (2011), which destroyed the most developed state in Africa; attempted coups in Sudan against the popular transition; the destabilisation of Burkina Faso before the triumph of Ibrahim TraorĆ©.
ā¢ Popular responseāthe new African anti-imperialist belt: The peoples of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea Conakry, and Sudan have expelled French troops, creating the Alliance of Sahel States and requesting military cooperation from Russia (through the Wagner Group/Africa Corps). This represents the rebirth of the revolutionary Pan-Africanist movement that looks to Thomas Sankara, Kwame Nkrumah, and Patrice Lumumba.
2. The Multiple Fronts of World War III and the Anti-Imperialist Strategy
There is not one single war, but five interconnected fronts:
***ķģ²Øė¶*************
Front Form of Aggression Popular Response
Economic-Financial
Unilateral sanctions, confiscation of reserves (Russia, Venezuela, Afghanistan), odious debt.
De-dollarisation (BRICS+, yuan, ruble, gold), inter-state barter, popular complementary currencies.
Direct Military (NATO)
Ukraine as testing ground; arms to Taiwan; bases in 80 countries. Russia-China-North Korea-Iran military cooperation; asymmetric deterrence doctrine (hypersonic weapons and drones).
Hybrid-Informational
Media fascism: censorship of anti-imperialist voices, fabrication of āterrorismā, deepfakes.
Free networks (Telegram, Signal, decentralised networks), community radios, militant fact-checking.
Biological-Ecological
Fabricated pandemics (USAMRIID laboratories), vaccine hoarding, seizure of seeds and water.
Health sovereignty (local drug production), defence of indigenous territories as the lungs of the world.
Proxy (by delegation)
Ukraine vs. Russia; Israel vs. Palestine and Lebanon; Taiwan vs. China; Armenia vs. Azerbaijan (with Turkey-NATO).
Combative internationalism: anti-imperialist volunteers on all fronts.
*********************
3. The War in West Asia and the Imminent War in East Asia
West Asia (Middle East):
ā¢ The so-called āIsraeli-Palestinian conflictā is in reality a colonial settlement war with genocidal characteristics. Since October 2023, Israelāwith the full support of the US, UK, and Germanyāhas bombed hospitals, refugee camps, universities, and churches in Gaza, killing more than 40,000 Palestinians (the majority women and children).
ā¢ The Axis of Resistance (Hezbollah, Ansar Allah/Houthis of Yemen, Iraqi militias, official Syria) has demonstrated that Israelās āinvulnerabilityā is a myth. The Houthis are blockading the Red Sea to ships bound for Israel; Hezbollah has evacuated the north of occupied Palestine with precision missiles.
ā¢ Outlook: Open war between Israel and Hezbollah (Lebanon) and Iran is imminent. The US has already deployed aircraft carriers. A victory for the Resistance would mean the collapse of the Zionist project.
East Asia:
ā¢ Taiwan: The supreme expression of the US strategy to ācontain Chinaā is through the systematic violation of the One China principle, selling arms, training Taiwanese troops and threatening to ādefendā the island. China has defined reunification as irreversible and is conducting naval blockade exercises.
ā¢ Korea: The peninsula is in a technical state of war (armistice only, since 1953). The Democratic Peopleās Republic of Korea, with tactical nuclear weapons, is the only country that has militarily defeated the US (1950ā53). The joint exercises of the US, South Korea, and Japan seek to provoke a conflict that would justify military intervention.
ā¢ The Philippines and the South China Sea: The US has reactivated military bases in the Philippines (EDCA) to directly threaten China and Vietnam. The objective: to control 30% of global maritime trade and reserves of gas and marine resources.
We can conclude that: World War III is already being fought from the Donbas to Gaza, from the Red Sea to Taiwan. Imperialism opens all fronts because its internal crisis is irreversible. But each front is also an opportunity: where the empire advances, it meets resistance. And where there is resistance, the empire bleeds.
4. The Anti-Imperialist Struggles in Latin America
Our America, as MartĆ called it and Che defended it, has been the backyard of imperialism for two centuries. But today we are living through a second wave of progressive and revolutionary governments:
ā¢ The Bolivarian bloc: Venezuela resists the longest criminal blockade in history (900 individual sanctions, confiscation of Citgo, assassination attempts and the kidnapping of workersā president NicolĆ”s Maduro). The Bolivarian Militia and the CLAP (local supply committees) have prevented collapse.
ā¢ Cuba: More than 60 years of genocidal blockade have not broken the revolution. Cuba produces its own vaccines (Soberana, Abdala), sends doctors to the world, and educates young people from across the Americas at the Latin American School of Medicine (ELAM). Cubaās greatest strength: its single party and its system of popular defence.
ā¢ Sandinista Nicaragua: Daniel Ortega Saavedra has defeated two coup attempts financed by USAID and NED. Nicaragua: geopolitical project of the Greater Caribbean.
ā¢ New actors: Colombiaās president Gustavo Petro, despite contradictions, has broken with the Monroe Doctrine, proposed a debt-for-climate-action swap, and has denounced the genocide in Gaza.
ā¢ Social movements: Indigenous peoples (in Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Mexico), the MST (Landless Workersā Movement) of Brazil, unemployed organisations in Argentina, and combative trade unions are the backbone of everyday resistance.
Principal threat: The fascist far-right (Bolsonaro, Milei, Kast, MarĆa Corina Machado) is the fifth column of imperialism. Milei in Argentina has already surrendered monetary, energy, and military sovereignty to the US.
Comrades, imperialism is rotten, but it has teeth. World War III will not be won by wishes, but by organisation, discipline, and conscious sacrifice.
Our global anti-imperialist front must be today what the Communist International was in the 1930s: a thorn in the side of fascism, a school of courage, a factory of revolutions.
We do not know if victory will come tomorrow or in 20 years. But we do know that defeat is only certain if we do not fight.
No to the Third World War of capital!
Yes to the war of the peoples against capital!
Long live the global anti-imperialist front!
Ā”Hasta la victoria siempre, camaradas!
Approaches of the Ruling Class in the War against Russia
Communist Organization (KO, Germany)
This year has been marked by an accelerated pace of imperialist military attacks against their opponents: the year began with attacks on Iran and Venezuela. At the same time, at least since Russiaās military operation in Ukraine, we have also witnessed increasingly confident resistance against imperialismās cowardly attacks. Most recently, the Iranian people have made a profound impression by standing up with full commitment to defend the Islamic Republicācontrary to Western propaganda: Consider, for example, the human chains around the power plants.
Unfortunately, this anti-imperialist resistance does not receive unconditional solidarity from the western anti-imperialist movement. On the contrary, it shows once again how deeply liberal and colonialist patterns of thought are rooted in the worldview of especially the Western left, even within anti-imperialist circles. They do not want bombs, yet they do want the overthrow of the Islamic and Bolivarian republics. With this de facto withdrawal of solidarity, they ultimately contribute to justifying the attacks and divide consistent resistance against the war policyāresistance that is urgently needed.
In addition, we are witnessing how right-wing forces are exploiting the weaknesses of the left-wing movement to demagogically disguise themselves as forces for peace. It is our task to expose them. We repeatedly observe how these forces are underestimated or credited with a potentially useful role in weakening NATO. In our assessment, these positions are very dangerous. Even though we do not yet have a complete analysis of their role, we wish to present, using the example of current developments in Germany and the AfD, some aspects and theses that should be included in the discussion. The AfD, short for āAlternative for Germany,ā is the most popular right-wing party in Germany, currently leading in the polls.
GermanyāVassal of the US or Hegemon?
The war in Ukraine laid bare both the contradictory and the common interests of German and US imperialism. Often within the movement, there is either an overemphasis (Germanyās third attempt at world power) or an underemphasis (Germany as a vassal of the US) on the strength of German imperialism. The āeither/orā dichotomy is misguided here and should be replaced by a āboth/and.ā For the situation of German imperialism stems from the contradiction of pursuing independent interests while simultaneously being subordinate to US imperialism.
Germanyās interest lies in asserting its hegemony over Russia, continuing the EUās eastward expansion unimpeded, assuming a leading role as a NATO pillar against Russia, and using the war as a catalyst for its own military buildup. At the same time, the nature of the warfare is largely determined by US imperialism, which pursues, among other things, the goal of disciplining and economically weakening German imperialism.
Despite their inter-imperialist contradictions, however, the US and Germany are fundamentally on the same side in the war against Russia. This was most clearly evident in the conflicts surrounding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Parts of German capital did not want to give up the profitable energy exports from Russia so easily, but the US ultimately prevailed by blowing up the pipelines without much outcry. Central to Germany is its dominant position within the EU; German imperialism thus benefits massively from the euro and cheap labour in Eastern Europe. Conflicts also exist regarding this sphere of influence, but a break of Germany with NATO is not possible in the foreseeable future. The military and economic dependence is too great.
Most recently, the war in Iran also demonstrated this bond: while other EU countries at least formally objected to the use of US bases located in their territories for the Iran War, the US Air Base Ramstein in Germany remains a central hub for US wars. For example, it hosts relay stations for satellite communications that enabled the US to carry out much more precise attacks than if the data had come from the US itself. Nevertheless, the Iran war also showed the contradictions again, deepening the energy crisis in Germany.
At the same time, Germany is striving to build greater military power, with historical war loans in recent years, the first steps toward reintroducing compulsory military service, and most recently the new military strategy, which aims to make the German Bundeswehr the strongest conventional army in Europe by 2035. This includes the plan to increase the size of the German Bundeswehr from 180,000 to 460,000 men, including the military reserve. The strategy paper also makes it clear once again where the main offensive is directed: against Russia.
The AfD as a āForce for Peaceā?
Eastern Europe is one of, if not the central, sphere of influence for German imperialism. The quest to subjugate Russia stems from this and represents a historical continuity of German imperialism. There is no doubt that this is the case, though views among the ruling class might differ somewhat on the tactics. Thus, the AfD sometimes masquerades as a critic of the current war policy against Russia.
In this regard, four points must be noted:
1. Just like other German parties, it speaks of Russiaās āwar of aggression in violation of international law,ā condemns the Iranian government by calling it the āmullah regime,ā and, for example, stands firmly on the side of Israel.
2. Its apparent opposition to sanctions and arms deliveries in the Ukraine war is merely a critique of the efficiency of the measures and the timing: according to its analysis, Germany still needs cheap raw material imports to further strengthen its military capabilities and to secure Germanyās hegemonic position in the long term. To this end, it seeks alliances with compradors in Russia who advocate a course against China, for Europe, for capitalism, and thus for the sale of resources to Germany. These are forces rooted in the anti-communist tradition. This is not a long-term path to peace; on the contrary, it is the preparation for greater war-fighting capability.
3. In the words of the AfD, Germany should no longer be a āslave to the US.ā What may appear to be a turning away from the US is merely the push for greater investment in German rearmament and a focus on leadership in Europeānot a break with NATO. With this course, the AfD is welcomed by the ruling circles in the US: Elon Musk speaks positively of them and receives coverage in the German press as a result. The AfD praises the US National Security Strategy, which calls for transatlantic right-wing alliances.
4. The AfD was deliberately and systematically built up by other established parties to channel all dissent into avenues that pose no threat to capital. That is why the ruling circles very deliberately label it as a fundamental opposition party and associate it with Russia or China.
Militarisation and Social Cuts
The increasingly aggressive war course must also be viewed from its domestic political perspective: in Germany as in the US, right-wing to openly fascist forces are increasingly being courted, and social cuts are being pushed forward on a massive scale.
Forces like the AfD and Trump connect influential circles of capital with classic fascist forces. Although the AfD is not yet in power in Germany, it plays an important role in shaping the prevailing political discourseāwhether it be the increasingly racist and chauvinistic rhetoric, measures that make the situation of migrants more precarious, or the implementation of general social cuts. Step by step, the limits of public tolerance are being tested, and the AfD plays a decisive role in this. For example, it describes German fascism as āa flyspeck in history.ā
While in recent years so-called ādemocraticā forces have accustomed the population to war, these now seem increasingly insufficient to cope with the scale of NATOās military aggression. While a few years ago we had to expose acts of military aggression carried out under the guise of human rights, today colonialism and fascism are being openly rehabilitated.
Marco Rubioās speech at the Munich Security Conference points in this direction: he not only portrays colonial history in a positive light and describes 1945 as a negative turning point due to anti-colonialism and communism, but also clearly calls for re-colonisation. It also shows how openly such positions are advocated within the German government even without the AfD in power: Rubio received standing ovations from the German foreign and defence ministers.
The right-wing forces that speak of national interestsāby which they mean cuts to social services and military buildupādo not represent a break with the interests of German monopoly capital, but rather advocate a different way of integrating the working class and an even more aggressive pursuit of capitalās interests.
The German governmentās recently published military strategy predicts that āadherence to recognised ethical and legal principlesā can no longer be relied upon in a potential war against Russia, for which the German Bundeswehr is to become Europeās strongest conventional army by 2035.
It is relatively obvious that the policies necessary for this will likely only be possible in the long run with the AfD. That is why it is all the more important to expose their demagoguery and better understand the role of the newly forming transatlantic right. The AfD and Trump are political representatives of an even more overtly war-mongering course of imperialism. They promote the division of the working class, reactionary agitation against migrants and other countries, and attempt to draw the working class to the side of the ruling class through peace demagoguery. We must work on a better understanding of their role in order to expose their positions and to unite the working class behind truly progressive positions.
